Sunday, February 10, 2013

Blizzard of 2013

After a week of nonstop model watching and meteorological analysis that largely proved to be right on the money many Connecticut residents are literally snowed in for the first time in their lives as the Blizzard of 2013 put down a strip of at least three feet of snow across a wide swath of the central part of the state. Living in Stratford I am completely unable to go anywhere and do not anticipate being able to leave home for a few days still. This historic storm surpassed anything except for the Blizzard of 1888 in most of Connecticut, with the Blizzard of 1978's snowfall not nearing the totals we received. While the latter storm left an indelible mark because of the chaos it created - moving in with the heaviest snow much more quickly and with stronger winds affecting Connecticut - this system will not be forgotten because of the sheer volume of liquid it dumped on us.

Here is what the Blizzard of 1888 dumped via Wunderground:


Of course that is less precise than it would be today, but considering our inability to measure these amounts even in 2013, it is a very good representation of what occurred. Once again the center of the state had a streak of huge amounts but the system was much closer to shore and put snow much further to the northwest. It did a complete loop off Long Island and Massachusetts, continually snowing and pushing itself to number one all-time. As the upper level low and surface low came together in this 2013 storm it stalled out and, when combined with deformation bands filled with convection and an incredible cold conveyor belt, put more snow down than we had seen in 125 years in many locations.

It is very difficult to measure how much snow fell without doing it by clearing a snow board every certain number of hours throughout the storm. I used a variety of techniques and still came up in "just" the low 30s in inches in Stratford. However, watching the storm nearly nonstop via an enormous amount of modeling, radars, and analysis tools while staring out the window throughout the heaviest portions makes me think we all probably had something more along the lines of 36-40 inches with isolated areas over 40. Flat open areas had more snow at 2 or 3AM than they did in the morning after the storm because of all the strong wind that continued after the heaviest snowfall ended.

Let's give a lot of credit to numerical weather modeling systems like the European (ECMFW) that nailed the storm and its potential place in history several days out. The "Euro" has the best verification scores of any model and once again proved it is the best as it found a solution and shifted only slightly from it. If it had any fault it was too warm and too dry until near the end, and a little too widespread. The short-range North American Model (NAM) was largely correct in its Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, placing the banding right over us and to extreme levels of three to four inches of water nearly three days away. Where it failed - extending the main batch of precipitation too far to the west - the Global Forecast System (GFS) picked up a little of the slack showing that places like Greenwich continuing west would have a much more run of the mill total. However, both the NAM and GFS still veered wildly over the map at times, and investing in these two American models (along with all science and education!) would be a wonderful thing to do in order to improve them and others.

For what it's worth, here are some of the snowfall totals:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
315 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

THANK YOU TO ALL...FOR THE REPORTS DURING THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM.
THE NWS APPRECIATES THE HUNDREDS OF REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN SENT IN.
IF YOUR REPORT IS NOT INCLUDED BELOW...BE ASSURED THAT IT WAS
RECEIVED AND IS BEING USED BY THE NWS METEOROLOGISTS.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             35.0  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   STRATFORD             33.0  1030 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MONROE                30.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BRIDGEPORT            30.0   658 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER
   SHELTON               26.5   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   WESTON                26.5   800 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WESTPORT              24.5   645 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   GREENWICH             22.5   900 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   DARIEN                22.1   500 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORWALK               22.0   730 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   ROXBURY               22.0   800 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEW CANAAN            22.0   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   DANBURY               21.5  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT
   STAMFORD              19.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NEWTOWN               17.1  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   BETHEL                16.0   800 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   RIDGEFIELD            12.0   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   EAST HADDAM           35.5   845 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   OLD SAYBROOK          30.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT
   CLINTON               27.5   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   HADDAM                27.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT
   HIGGANUM              24.0   700 AM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO
   CROMWELL              23.0   700 AM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO
   MIDDLETOWN            12.0  1200 PM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   HAMDEN                40.0   100 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MILFORD               38.0   615 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   CLINTONVILLE          37.0  1040 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   OXFORD                36.2   600 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BRANFORD        36.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MERIDEN               36.0   200 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   YALESVILLE            35.0   909 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WALLINGFORD           35.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NEW HAVEN             34.3   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   WEST HAVEN            34.0  1040 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORTHFORD             33.5   950 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WOLCOTT               33.0   457 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   EAST HAVEN            33.0  1005 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GUILFORD              33.0  1113 AM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA
   NORTH GUILFORD        32.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WATERBURY             32.0   900 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MADISON               32.0   321 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NAUGATUCK             30.0   600 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORTH HAVEN           29.0   950 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BRANFORD              28.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   SOUTHBURY             26.3  1030 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BRANDFORD       24.0  1230 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   BEACON FALLS          21.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   COLCHESTER            31.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT
   GILMAN                27.0   600 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORWICH               25.0   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   LISBON                24.0  1158 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GALES FERRY           24.0  1045 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   OLD LYME              23.6  1200 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   LEDYARD CENTER        22.0  1045 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MYSTIC SEAPORT        21.0  1100 AM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE
   STONINGTON            15.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
137 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 20
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...
   GLASTONBURY           33.5   326 PM  2/09  GENERAL PUBLIC
   MANCHESTER            32.0  1044 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   WEATOGUE              31.0  1012 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   NEWINGTON             30.0   724 PM  2/09  NONE
   SO GLASTONBURY        29.0  1255 PM  2/09  NONE
   FARMINGTON            29.0   918 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   GRANBY                29.0   938 AM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE
   BURLINGTON            27.5   902 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HARTFORD              27.0   929 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   CANTON                26.0   956 AM  2/09  NONE
   NORTH GRANBY          25.0   610 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   AVON                  25.0   643 AM  2/09  NONE
   BRISTOL               24.0   908 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SIMSBURY              24.0   618 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   COLLINSVILLE          23.5   806 AM  2/09  NONE
   WINDSOR               23.0   700 AM  2/09  COCORAHS
   SOUTH WINDSOR         23.0  1250 PM  2/09  NONE
   WINDSOR LOCKS         22.8   108 PM  2/09  BDL AIRPORT
   ASHFORD               22.0   931 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   EAST HARTFORD         20.0   621 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   ENFIELD               20.0   620 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO

...TOLLAND COUNTY...
   COVENTRY              32.5  1143 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STAFFORDVILLE         31.4   100 PM  2/09  NWS COOP
   TOLLAND               30.5   914 AM  2/09  GENERAL PUBLIC
   STAFFORD SPRINGS      26.1  1237 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOMERS                25.5   646 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
   EAST KILLINGLY        26.0  1105 AM  2/09  NONE
   WOODSTOCK             26.0  1024 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   THOMPSON              25.5  1008 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HAMPTON               25.0   829 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER
   ASHFORD               24.0   828 AM  2/09  GENERAL PUBLIC
   DANIELSON             22.5   933 AM  2/09  HAM RADIO
   POMFRET CENTER        22.0  1114 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER





In my next entry I will look at some of the details of what exactly pushed us to ridiculously elevated levels of snowfall as rates touched six or seven inches per hour in some areas! This storm will be studied by meteorological experts for years to come. After the historic 2010-2011 winter with multiple major or historic snowstorms, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene, the October snowstorm, Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy...what will we have next? We are building quite the pile of evidence for a changing climate here in the northeast and we have to prepare for the worst for our environment.


Scott Kruitbosch
Conservation Technician


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